Rolling rate of Covid cases up to more than 105 in parts of the South Hams

The "rolling rate" for Covid 19 cases in the South Hams has hit 105.9 per 100,000 in Chillington, Torcross and Stoke Fleming. 

According to the Government's interactive map, which you can see here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map, the rolling rate for half of the South Hams is up to 105.9 per 100,000, which is well above the national average. 

This is likely to be slightly skewed due to the small population numbers in the South Hams and the small number of cases, which always makes statistics less reliable, but it does show a marked increase in local cases, with at least two primary schools reporting cases. 

The data also only covers the area until 15th of May and therefore the rate could be higher.

The seven day rolling rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are calculated by dividing the seven day count by the area population and multiplying by 100,000. 

There is concern that this rapid increase in cases could be due to the Indian variant, B1617.2, which is threatening the 21 June date for the ending of Covid-19 restrictions. 

Data from the Wellcome Sanger Institute – based on recent surge testing – shows how rapidly the Indian variant has spread across England. There has been a 44 per cent increase in the number of areas in England detecting the Indian variant over the past week. The variant of concern was found in 127 areas in the week ending 8 May, compared with 71 in the week before.

Despite this, and the fact that the Indian variant is more transmissible than other variants, more than 100 flights have entered the UK since India was put on the red list. (source)

On 23 April, India was placed on the government's red list of countries amid fears over a new strain of the virus first detected there. Since then, some 110 planes have touched down at UK airports — a rate of more than 4.5 per day, according to an analysis of flight data by LBC.

Most of the Indian variant cases that have been confirmed in the UK have been in the Midlands and the South East, but with the Covid restrictions lifting and movement within the country happening more and more, the risk of it spreading across the UK seems to be increasing.